You ask me a question about a subject that is near and dear to my heart, Mr. Colonel. Forgive me if I ramble a bit.

The music industry, like all industries which provide content (movies, newspapers) is in a serious state of flux right now due to their inability to gain hold of internet technologies as they became available.

I believe that of the three industries above, however, that music is in the best place. The future of the music industry will be more diverse, of higher quality and I believe will ultimately emerge with artists making more money than they did before the dawn of Napster.

In the process we are going to see the downsizing of major labels, and the importance of organizations like the RIAA (Recording Industry Association of America). The people running those organizations are screwed because they refuse to accept how people want their music. They were the ones who pushed crappy DRM when the iTunes store first launched. They shut down Napster. They closed Oink.

They say dumb things like this:

(image via Gizmodo)

Contrary to the opinion of the well-intentioned, but often off his rocker Bono, I would say that a decade of file-sharing has made it clear that the people it hurts are large record labels who enjoy making a profit off of other people’s creative output. Pre-internet, it could be argued that their service was necessary. Artists needed help distributing and promoting their music. Now, there are many studies that show that those who pirate music are actually the ones who buy more of it then anyone else. Example here. (I’ve read many articles like this one, but can’t find links at the moment)

Now, a web-savvy artist can pretty much promote and distribute themselves. I buy CDs because I like them, but I’m one of the few who does. Even my father, who owns literally thousands of CDs has made the transition and buys most of his music through iTunes. If i’m going to primarily listen to music on my computer or mp3 player anyway, why would I want it on a CD? Even when I buy a CD however, I normally swipe it off the web to get onto my computer because it’s quicker and more convenient. I’ll leave the CD in my car to listen to it there.

If the major labels aren’t promoting it then, who is? Websites, blogs, message boards, peer-to-peer sites. This is the stuff of the future. There are many taste-makers out there for almost any genre of music on the internet. I just recently downloaded an EP that an artist uploaded on my torrent downloading site of choice. The band is called Lies, here’s a link to their Myspace page.

I see the music industry becoming less “main-stream” and more personal. As a result of the internet, more people than ever are enjoying the freedom to pick and choose what they listen to, without having to hunt it down at a record store, and without a friend having to make them a mixtape. This is a positive things. Artists will still be making money, because while they may have smaller audiences, they will more and more be cutting out the middle-man and making almost 100% of the profit they get from their music.

The iTunes store or Amazon mp3 is an example of a reasonable model for simplicity and ease of use. I have friends who have their music on the iTunes store. They aren’t making a living off of their music, yet people can buy their music at the largest music distributor in the world. It’s a game changing idea, basically it would be the equivalent 10 years ago of saying “anyone can get their music into a WalMart.”

In six years, music on CDs will be a niche item, and in 16 years, they will be about about as common as vinyl records. The physical aspect of recorded music is going to die. It’s not just music industry market trends that say so either. It makes sense on a lot of levels. Digital music is more environmentally friendly. Less plastic, less waste in dumpsters. Digital music is obviously more portable. It’s more accessible. It’s everything that people want in the 21st century. There will be more bands, and less of them (by percentage and probably number as well) on major labels.  Major labels will still exist, and there will still be music that “everyone has heard”. But more and more people will have their own musical tastes outside of the radio.

And all of this sounds great to me. The RIAA and major labels can rot for all I care. They haven’t really done much in my lifetime other then stifle inovation, and I’d be happy to see them go.

Those are my thoughts. Sorry for the potential incoherence. (The damn “answer” box only lets me see like 4 lines at a time)